Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s Bid to Join BRICS: Balancing Western Pressure with Strategic Alliances

by CASPRI

Azerbaijan’s potential accession to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) has gained significant momentum recently, marking a key shift in Baku’s foreign policy strategy. Discussions around Azerbaijan joining BRICS have been ongoing, but a significant breakthrough occurred with the signing of a joint declaration between Azerbaijan and China during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana in July 2023. The declaration officially expressed Azerbaijan’s desire to join BRICS, with China welcoming this initiative.

The formal application for BRICS membership was submitted shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan on August 20, indicating that the move may have been coordinated with Moscow. As Russia holds the BRICS presidency in 2024, and with the next BRICS summit scheduled for October in Kazan, there is speculation that Azerbaijan’s application could be swiftly approved. Turkey, another key regional player, has also shown interest in joining the bloc, as stated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

The Geopolitical and Economic Significance of BRICS

BRICS has grown into a formidable geopolitical and economic alliance, particularly with the recent inclusion of countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia. The bloc now accounts for 35.7% of the global GDP, surpassing the G7, whose share has dropped below 30%. As BRICS continues to position itself as a counterweight to Western dominance, particularly the U.S. and EU, its appeal has grown for nations seeking alternative platforms for political and economic engagement.

For Azerbaijan, the attraction to BRICS lies in its economic potential and strategic advantages. Particularly in securing funding for infrastructure projects that would enhance trade routes in the South Caucasus. Besides, Western powers, particularly France and the U.S., favoring Armenia in the regional conflict, Azerbaijan may find BRICS membership essential to balancing its foreign policy and gaining access to alternative sources of investment.

Financial Instruments and Economic Opportunities

BRICS provides its members with two key financial tools: the New Development Bank (NDB) and a pool of foreign exchange reserves, alternatives to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These institutions offer significant funding opportunities for infrastructure projects and financial stability, crucial for Azerbaijan’s role as a global transit hub in the Middle Corridor, which connects East-West and North-South trade routes.

The NDB can finance projects that enhance Azerbaijan’s transport capacity, including its role in regional transit corridors such as the North-South Transport Corridor. This corridor links Russia to the Middle East and South Asia via Azerbaijan, making BRICS membership strategically valuable for Baku. Moreover, access to the pool of foreign exchange reserves could help Azerbaijan mitigate economic challenges such as high inflation and budget deficits.

Political Motives: Easing Western Pressure

Azerbaijan’s push to join BRICS is also driven by geopolitical considerations. Relations with the West, particularly with the EU and U.S., have been complicated by Western support for Armenia in the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. By aligning with BRICS, Azerbaijan seeks to diversify its foreign alliances, reducing its dependence on Western institutions and counterbalancing external pressures. Closer ties with Russia, China, and other BRICS nations offer Baku an opportunity to fortify its sovereignty and strengthen its geopolitical standing.

As BRICS increasingly positions itself as a bloc promoting a multipolar world order, Baku sees an opportunity to participate in an alliance that challenges Western-dominated global governance frameworks. BRICS advocates for reform in the international monetary system, notably promoting de-dollarization in trade between member countries, aligning with Azerbaijan’s interests in diversifying its economic relationships.

Challenges and Limitations of BRICS Membership

Despite the strategic advantages, BRICS also presents challenges for Azerbaijan. Critics argue that BRICS remains largely an amorphous political forum, rather than a fully integrated economic bloc. The absence of a free trade agreement between member countries highlights the limited economic integration within BRICS, and Azerbaijan’s economy remains more closely tied to the West. Currently, BRICS countries account for only 20% of Azerbaijan’s total exports, with Russia and China being its third and fourth-largest trading partners, respectively.

Moreover, China’s economic dominance within BRICS, which accounts for more than 70% of the bloc’s GDP, raises concerns about the extent to which Azerbaijan can influence decision-making within the group. China has positioned BRICS as a platform for challenging U.S. global hegemony, attracting resource-rich Middle Eastern countries to support its agenda. While Azerbaijan’s entry into BRICS would expand the bloc’s influence into the South Caucasus, it is unclear how much economic benefit Baku would derive from the organization, given its existing trade ties with the West.

Logistics and Regional Cooperation

One of the main reasons for Azerbaijan’s interest in BRICS is the potential for enhanced logistical cooperation. The North-South International Corridor and the Middle Corridor connecting China, India, and Europe are critical for Azerbaijan’s economy, and BRICS membership could facilitate greater investments in these projects. Azerbaijan’s geographic location at the center of key trade routes makes it an attractive partner for BRICS nations. By establishing itself as a crucial node in global logistics networks, Azerbaijan could attract additional investments in its infrastructure and transportation sectors.

Political and Geopolitical Considerations

Politically, Azerbaijan’s entry into BRICS signals an effort to alleviate the growing tensions with the West. By deepening ties with Russia, China, and other BRICS members, Azerbaijan aims to strengthen its position on the global stage. This aligns with Baku’s broader foreign policy strategy of maintaining a balanced approach between major powers, without becoming overly reliant on any one bloc.

However, it remains to be seen how Azerbaijan’s membership in BRICS will affect its relations with Western powers. The U.S. and EU may view Azerbaijan’s closer alignment with BRICS as a sign of distancing from Western frameworks, potentially leading to a recalibration of Baku’s relations with these powers. As BRICS countries advocate for an alternative global order, Azerbaijan’s participation could have long-term implications for its role in Eurasian geopolitics.

Conclusion: A Strategic Balancing Act

Azerbaijan’s bid to join BRICS represents a strategic effort to balance Western pressure with new opportunities for economic and political cooperation in the East. The financial instruments and logistical benefits offered by BRICS align with Azerbaijan’s ambitions as a key transit hub in Eurasia. Additionally, closer ties with BRICS nations provide Baku with greater political leverage on the global stage, particularly in light of its complex relations with the West.

While BRICS membership offers numerous advantages, the economic benefits for Azerbaijan remain uncertain, given the bloc’s lack of economic integration and Baku’s stronger ties to Western markets. Nonetheless, Azerbaijan’s move toward BRICS reflects its broader strategy of maintaining geopolitical flexibility and diversifying its foreign alliances in an increasingly multipolar world.