Azerbaijan

COP 29 in Baku: Accessing Azerbaijan’s Strategic Outreach and Its Geopolitical Consequences

by CASPRI

Azerbaijan’s proactive engagement with Southern Europe, through ventures like the Southern Gas Corridor and the new Black Sea Energy strategy, represents a strategic extension of its energy diplomacy. These initiatives, aimed at exporting green energy to the Balkan region and adjacent countries, not only diversify Azerbaijan’s energy markets but also reinforce its geopolitical influence in Europe. For instance, recent key agreements include SOCAR’s partnerships with gas operators across Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia, and notable investments such as the Hungarian state company MVM acquiring stakes in Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan’s largest gas field.

In April 2023, the ‘Ring of Solidarity’ agreement was signed by Azerbaijan along with Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania, enhancing the utility of European gas interconnectors to elevate gas flows through the Southern Gas Corridor. The Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) is another significant project set to channel Azerbaijani gas from Albania to Central Europe by 2025, demonstrating the strategic use of infrastructure to cement long-term energy relationships.

While these ventures bolster Azerbaijan’s energy ties and enhance its regional influence, the backdrop of energy crises in the Balkans, exacerbated by Western sanctions against Russia, positions Azerbaijan as a critical alternative energy source. This role, however, invites scrutiny over the sustainability and political implications of such energy dependencies.

Geopolitically, Azerbaijan’s engagement with the Balkans, particularly through enhanced maritime access and cooperation with Greece, has not only strategic but also tactical significance, balancing regional power dynamics and influencing policies towards contentious issues such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The decision to host COP29 in Baku, following Bulgaria’s withdrawal, ostensibly reflects global endorsement of Azerbaijan’s policies, including its controversial anti-terrorism measures. This platform not only aims to project Azerbaijan as a green economy advocate but also as a capable organizer on the international stage, potentially shifting narratives from its oil-dependent image to that of a green leader.

The anticipated influx of 70-80 thousand foreign visitors due to COP29 will undoubtedly boost Azerbaijan’s tourism sector and enhance its global image. However, the event has also sparked discord in Paris, where there is considerable critique of Azerbaijan’s approach, especially concerning human rights and regional conflicts, suggesting that COP29 might also spotlight Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and diplomatic challenges.

In conclusion, while Azerbaijan positions itself as a leader capable of fostering significant discussions and initiatives on energy and climate issues, the broader geopolitical repercussions and internal political motives behind such moves warrant a deeper examination to fully appreciate their scope and impact.

---