Azerbaijan

Putin’s Visit to Baku: Strategic Calculations and Geopolitical Implications

by CASPRI

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan on August 18-19 was his first in six years and came at a critical time for both global and regional geopolitics. Amidst the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, the visit signaled the high level of trust and cooperation between Baku and Moscow. The relationship between the two nations has grown stronger, particularly since Russia’s acceptance of the new geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus following Azerbaijan’s decisive anti-terrorist operation in Karabakh in 2023, which resulted in the exit of Russian peacekeepers.

Geopolitical Context and Common Interests

The timing of Putin’s visit is highly symbolic. With Russia engaged in its conflict with Ukraine, Moscow is keen to prevent the opening of a second front in the South Caucasus. The arming of Armenia by the United States, France, and India is seen by both Baku and Moscow as a destabilizing factor, raising concerns about the creation of new dividing lines in the region. Putin’s trip reinforced a common vision between Azerbaijan and Russia: the desire for stability in the South Caucasus and a mutual commitment to preventing further external interference in regional dynamics.

The South Caucasus has gained even more strategic importance for Russia since the imposition of Western sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is eager to access routes to the Indian Ocean, Middle East, and Europe through the South Caucasus, a plan that aligns with Azerbaijan’s policy as a transit hub. As traditional logistical channels are blocked, Azerbaijan has become a critical partner for Russia, especially in facilitating Russia’s trade and transport networks.

Economic Ties and the North-South Corridor

Trade between Russia and Azerbaijan is robust, with Russia ranking third among Azerbaijan’s trading partners. In 2023, trade between the two countries reached $4.358 billion, a 17.5% increase from the previous year, reflecting strong economic ties. Russia is Azerbaijan’s top non-oil trading partner, particularly in the agricultural sector, with Azerbaijan supplying a significant portion of Russia’s vegetable and fruit needs.

One of the most critical items on Putin’s agenda was the North-South Transport Corridor, a project connecting Russia to Iran through Azerbaijan, crucial for Moscow’s access to global markets. During talks, both leaders emphasized the importance of this corridor, and Azerbaijan’s ongoing efforts to modernize its railway network to handle 15 million tons of cargo annually. Putin is also keen to see the Zangezur Corridor operational, which has faced delays attributed to Armenian reluctance.

Energy Politics and Strategic Maneuvering

Another significant topic during the visit was Russia’s interest in using Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure to sell oil and gas to Europe. Since Western sanctions cut off Russian energy exports to the continent, Moscow has explored various strategies, including selling oil through Azerbaijan under the guise of Azerbaijani resources. This would allow Russia to maintain its foothold in Europe’s energy market despite sanctions. Additionally, the transit of gas through Ukraine is set to end in 2024, prompting discussions about the potential use of Azerbaijan’s infrastructure to facilitate energy exports.

While Russia is keen to bolster these energy deals, there are still disagreements, particularly regarding the pricing of Russian oil for Azerbaijani refineries. Moscow is pushing for discounted rates, while Baku seeks to sell the refined oil at market prices. This delicate negotiation underscores the complexity of balancing mutual interests in the energy sector.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict: Russia’s Role

Putin’s visit also served as a reaffirmation of Russia’s role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process. Since the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between the two countries, facilitating a trilateral format involving Moscow, Baku, and Yerevan. During his visit, Putin expressed Russia’s continued support for peace negotiations, emphasizing the need for border delimitation, unblocking regional communications, and ensuring economic cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

However, the visit sparked anxiety in Armenia, where experts fear that closer ties between Azerbaijan and Russia could increase pressure on Yerevan. Armenian political analysts argue that Azerbaijan and Russia are aligning to isolate Armenia and dictate terms that may not align with Armenia’s interests, particularly on the issue of Karabakh. This concern is compounded by Russia’s strained relationship with Armenia, which has been drifting closer to the West under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Reactions from Ukraine and the West

Putin’s visit to Baku also drew criticism from Ukraine and Western media. Some Ukrainian commentators called for sanctions against SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, due to its perceived cooperation with Gazprom. Meanwhile, Western media outlets speculated on Russia’s broader energy strategy, suggesting that Moscow may increasingly rely on Azerbaijan as a conduit to maintain energy exports to Europe, circumventing sanctions and logistical challenges.

Despite these criticisms, Azerbaijan has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, managing to preserve partnerships with both Moscow and Kyiv. This neutrality has allowed Baku to navigate the complex web of regional geopolitics effectively.

Conclusion: A Strategic Partnership Amid Global Shifts

Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan underscores Baku’s growing importance to Moscow in both geopolitical and economic terms. As Russia seeks alternative trade routes and energy export strategies in the face of Western sanctions, Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub and regional power has become indispensable. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s ability to maintain neutrality during the Russia-Ukraine war, while fostering strong ties with both the West and Russia, reflects Baku’s adept foreign policy approach.

In sum, Azerbaijan’s partnership with Russia is not only crucial for Moscow’s regional ambitions but also positions Baku as a key player in the evolving dynamics of the South Caucasus. As both countries continue to strengthen their economic and strategic ties, Azerbaijan’s influence in regional and global affairs will likely grow.