Azerbaijan

Strategic Maneuvers: The Pashayev Clan’s Bid for Unchallenged Control Over Azerbaijan’s Parliament

by CASPRI

On June 20, amidst preparations for the COP29 international climate summit, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) declared the necessity of early parliamentary elections. Officially, the party cited the need for a fully functional parliament during the summit. The following day, Parliament overwhelmingly supported this proposal, with 105 votes in favor and just one against.

This push for early elections by NAP is not merely a procedural necessity but reflects a deeper political strategy, seemingly influenced by the Pashayev clan’s desire to consolidate power. The initiative surfaced after discussions had been circulating within political circles, with other parties like the Republican Alternative party (REAL) already gearing up for the electoral process.

The opposition’s response has been mixed but critical. Mustafa Hajibeyli of the Musavat party criticized the NAP for disrespecting voters by dissolving the parliament prematurely for the second consecutive term, questioning the legitimacy of their tenure if the previous elections were indeed fair. Ali Karimli, leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (APFP), and his deputy, Seymour Khazi, highlighted the timing and conditions of the elections as non-competitive, pointing to the imprisonment of key opposition figures and a lack of transparency as evidence of an uneven playing field.

Historically, similar tactics were employed five years ago when the NAP dissolved parliament aligning with President Ilham Aliyev’s reform agenda. Critics then accused the government of hastening the elections to facilitate electoral fraud, with subsequent protests from candidates demanding a re-election, which the Constitutional Court dismissed by validating the elections.

Analysis of the candidates and election outcomes reveals a pattern: the re-election of many previous incumbents, which contradicts the official narrative of rejuvenating parliamentary leadership. This repetitive strategy suggests the Pashayev clan’s ongoing efforts to weed out unaligned new faces, maintaining a parliament stacked with loyalists.

The recurrent dissolution of parliament appears as a strategic move to recalibrate the internal political landscape, favoring the Pashayev clan’s dominance. Despite the official rhetoric of rejuvenation and reform, the practical outcome has often been a consolidation of power among longstanding NAP members, indicating a superficial turnover in parliamentary representation.

There are also claims that following these snap elections, a referendum to amend the Constitution might be on the horizon, potentially to fortify Mehriban Aliyeva’s position within the government structure. This step, coupled with the orchestrated parliamentary elections, could be seen as setting the stage for a seamless power transition within the Pashayev family, clearing the political field of significant dissent.

Given the orchestrated nature of these political maneuvers and the lack of a robust, organized opposition, the Pashayev clan’s strategy might again prove effective. This scenario reflects not just a political realignment but a calculated move to centralize authority, potentially altering the dynamics of Azerbaijan’s political landscape and governance.

---